A new election prediction sees the Conservatives winning in Wokingham despite declining political fortunes elsewhere.

The website the Electoral Calculus has predicted that Sir John Redwood, the Conservative MP for Wokingham will retain his place in Parliament at the next general election, which can be no later than January 28, 2025.

It has predicted Sir John winning both in the current parliamentary constituency and the proposed new constituency by the Boundary Commission for England (BCE).

This newly formed Wokingham constituency would see it acquire Finchampstead, Twyford and Sonning from neighbouring seats and lose Earley and the West Berkshire villages of Burghfield, Bradfield and Aldermaston.

The new boundary is set to be created this Summer.

Responding to whether he will stand in the next general election, Sir John said: “Yes I have been selected to be the Conservative candidate for the new Wokingham constituency.

“I will not make forecasts of how the Wokingham electors will decide to vote in many months time when we get to the election.

“It is a privilege to represent them and they will decide when asked to cast a vote. I will set out in the election how I would like to serve them in the following Parliament.

“I will continue to set out daily my campaigns, thoughts and actions in the current Parliament on www.johnredwoodsdiary.com and Twitter.”

Sir John was selected in a meeting with the Wokingham Conservative party in March.

Overall, the Electoral Calculus predicts Labour winning 457 seats, the Conservatives 113 and the Liberal Democrats taking 20.

For Wokingham, the site predicts Labour coming in second place with 35 per cent of the vote in the current constituency and 26 per cent in the new constituency.

Reacting to the possibility of Labour coming second place, councillor Clive Jones, the Liberal Democrat parliamentary candidate for Wokingham said: “That’s just so so wrong. I think the Electoral Calculus is often fairly wrong.

“Every indication on the doorstep in the current boundary and the new parliamentary boundary for Wokingham is that this is a straight fight between Sir John Redwood and me. Nobody else gets a look in.

“It’s a straight fight and there are huge numbers of former Conservative voters who say they cannot vote for the Conservatives again because of what they have done to the economy, because they can’t be straightforward with the people, and people are now saying ‘what has Sir John done over the last 36 years?’

“The NHS is crumbling and this guy has done nothing.

“It’s a fact that you can’t get an NHS dentist in Wokingham Borough.”

Cllr Jones also pointed to a prediction from the UK Polling Report which shows him winning with a nail-biting one per cent lead over Sir John.

LATEST SEAT PREDICTION: WOKINGHAM

LIB @CllrCliveJones GAIN FROM CON @johnredwoodMAJ: 1%https://t.co/EoXegHo4Kg pic.twitter.com/1oYXAIbCXd

— UK Polling Report (@PollingReportUK) March 30, 2023

Cllr Jones (Liberal Democrats, Hawkedon) is the leader of Wokingham Borough Council.

In his defence, Sir John hailed his success in lobbying the government to provide more NHS beds, with it being announced that the government will spend £1 billion on providing  5000 additional beds in NHS England hospitals.

In January last year, Sir John also welcomed a £6.887 million investment from the government in providing high quality dentistry in the South East.

Information is provided on his blog.

For his part, Cllr Andy Croy (Labour, Bulmershe & Whitegates) said: “The next election is still a long way out.

“People are coming over to Labour, they like what Sir Keir Starmer [the party leader] is saying, they are fed up with the Conservatives.

“Nothing has changed for the better and many things have changed for the worst over the last 13 years.”

Cllr Croy was the Labour candidate for Wokingham in the 2015 and 2017 general elections, coming runner up and beating cllr Jones into third place on both occasions.