How Bracknell MP seat will change - who will win?

The political map of England was effectively changed in July following a boundary commission review which redrew MP seat areas.

The constituency boundary review has led to a few changes to the Bracknell MP seat, which sees it gain Warfield from the Windsor constituency but lose Finchampstead and Wokingham Without to the newly wrought Wokingham constituency.

Now the political prediction website the Electoral Calculus is predicting that the Labour party will win the new Bracknell constituency at the next general election.

But Labour has not selected their candidate yet.

Commenting on the situation, councillor Roy Bailey (Labour, Town Centre & The Parks) said: “We are desperate to have a candidate in place, but we have to get permission from Sir Keir Starmer’s frontbench.”

Sir Keir is the Labour party leader, with cllr Bailey saying the process to select a candidate can begin after the party conference in October.

He added: “We’d love to have a candidate in place as it’s a very winnable seat with a predicted Labour majority.

READ MORE: Hundreds of homes approved in gap between Bracknell and Wokingham 

“We are losing time, but at the same time, we want a candidate who has done their homework.

“We don’t want someone who just answers emails, we want them to be fighting for the lot of local residents.

“Being an MP requires almost superhuman talents, abilities and resilience, as you could get a hiding from your own party whip for rebelling, or could become cannon fodder for extremists on the left and the right.”

Cllr Bailey is the executive member for children, young people and learning on Bracknell Forest Council.

Councillor Roy Bailey (Labour, Town Centre & The Parks). Credit: Bracknell Forest Council

At the time when the changes to constituencies first emerged in 2021, James Sunderland, Conservative MP for Bracknell, expressed disappointment that areas would be lost to Wokingham constituency but approved of the changes being  ‘coterminous’ with Bracknell Forest Council.

Cllr Bailey commented that Mr Sunderland is campaigning hard, with Labour currently lacking a figurehead to rally around.

Recently, Mr Sunderland held a constituency surgery in Crown Wood pub, met with senior managers from South Western Railway to voice concerns about the closure of ticket offices, and visited the old Beaufort Park site to observe the progress of a new housing development.

James Sunderland at The Crown Wood pub in Bracknell with landlord Phil Duhig. Credit: Office of James Sunderland MP

For their part, Bracknell Conservatives are sceptical of their predicted defeat at the hands of Labour, even given the local election results this year which saw them lose control of Bracknell Forest Council.

The Conservatives won the popular vote with 45 per cent of the vote share, the highest of any party.

Despite that, the Conservatives lost 28 seats on the council.

READ MORE: Remarkable result sees Conservatives lose control of Bracknell Forest Council 

Bob Johnston, the chairman of the Bracknell Conservative Association, said: “There are projections all the time, we’ve got a long way to a general election and polls change.

“If you look at the local election we still got more of the popular vote, Labour and the Liberal Democrats didn’t put candidates up against each other, despite their protestations that they didn’t have an alliance the ballot says something different.

“People weren’t given a fair vote to vote for the party they support.

“Polls change all the time and there are different polls other than the Electoral Calculus.

“When voters stand in the polling booth a different rationale goes through their mind, saying something to a pollster is different to making a reasoned decision that will affect the next five years.”

Mr Sunderland was reselected as the Conservative candidate for Bracknell in March.